Friday, November 18, 2011

Self-fulfilling prophecies

It is rather interesting to see how expectations often play a part in establishing results, whether in bank stability or even market leadership. In Bernanke's lecture on "Money, Gold, and the Great Depression," we observe how the expectation of bank failures spark bank runs in 1929, and lead to thousands of actual bank failures in the 1930's. Similarly, investors' speculation on the stability of the gold standard also contributed to the difficulty for central banks to maintain the gold values of their currencies, creating an overall unstable and destabilizing effect on the economy. We can see this pattern of self-fulfillment come into play even in company business models, through "expectations management," where the public's perceived future market leader will become the market leader, as the company's brand naturally builds upon itself through a network effect.

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